The Uganda shilling traded in a bearish mode, breaking trend lines to trade in the range of 3770/3780 during the week ending 1st June 2018. This means that Ugandans will need more shillings to buy dollars/import.
The surge in demand was driven by mainly energy and manufacturing end month fx requirements.
In the interbank money market, rates held steady to trade at 5% and 9% for overnight and one week funds. Some pockets of liquidity tightness were emerging.
In the fixed income space, there was no primary auction. The next Treasury bill auction is scheduled for Wednesday 6th June 2018.
In the regional currency markets, the Kenya shilling firmed up against the dollar supported by subdued demand and was expected to strengthened in the coming week on the back of improved fx inflows. Trading was in the range of 101.30/50.
In the international currency markets, the US dollar tumbled on fears of global trade conflicts which had somewhat receded over the past few week, were reignited as US announced that they would impose tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Canada, Mexico and EU.
In commodities, oil market fundamentals remained bullish with a barrel of brent crude trading at US$78.27.
“Outlook for the shilling suggest a weak shilling undermined by the sustained demand mainly from the energy sector. It is likely that Shilling will trade past the next resistance level of 3800, if supply conditions do not change. BOU intervention may be the only factor to reverse the trend,” says Stephen Kaboyo, an analyst and Managing Director at Alpha Capital Partners.