While economic shocks triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to subside, experts at the Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC), warn that they could continue to set back the human capital development trajectory without a plan of action.
The researchers, who in their new study sought to determine the long-term impact of COVID-19 on key indicators, assessed among others the progress the country would have made in reducing poverty if the pandemic hadn’t hit, how the situation is now and how the future is likely to be if new strategies in poverty reduction are not employed.
Dr. Linda Nakato from EPRC’s Macro Economics Department, says that their assessment shows that the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line grew from 8.5million people in 2019 to 9.6million in 2021 as a result of the pandemic.
She said with additional 1.4million people going below the poverty line, they estimate if nothing is done to salvage the situation, there will be 4.1million people below the line, which roughly represents a 25% relative increase to the no COVID scenario.
But, if new strategies are employed by government including social protection measures, making cheap credit more accessible and increased budgets for key sectors such as health and education, projections which experts did using the International Futures Model indicate that up to 2.5million of Ugandans can be pulled out of poverty by 2030.
The researchers also forecast implications on levels of hunger.
According to Paul Lakuma, an economist who was also part of the study, in 2019, just before the pandemic hit, seventeen million Ugandans had suffered from malnutrition which accounts for 38% of the population. Two years later, more five hundred thousand people had become malnourished.
Lakuma explains that their model shows that hunger will reduce to about thirteen million in 2040 but adds that this will still be higher than would be if the pandemic had not hit.
These results are coming in at a time where parts of the country experiencing extreme hunger levels with people succumbing in the Karamoja region. But, EPRC researchers say all this can be reduced through increasing agricultural production and access to food.
Commenting about these findings, Kubach Tarik, a representative from The European Union Uganda office said there is need for private-public partnerships to overcome the budget constraints for especially health, sanitation and hygiene.
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