The best way to plan ahead is often to look back to see the patterns emerge. Today’s article offers a recap of key patterns and trends that shaped the coffee industry throughout 2024, to help craft a strategy for 2025.
Once buoyed by low coffee prices, low interest rates, and an enthusiastic workforce, the specialty coffee sector – particularly roasters, importers and exporters – now faces a more challenging environment.
The days of thriving under passion-driven ownership and unsophisticated buying structures are giving way to new pressures.
“Specialty coffee is undergoing a crisis of sorts for roasters and exporters now, instead of solely producers,” says Henry Wilson, Founder of Producer & Roaster Forum and Coffee Intelligence.
Key changes over the past decade have reshaped the sector. Coffee prices have risen dramatically – with Arabica prices closing in at nearly US $3.50/lb – interest rates are higher, and an oversupply of roasters has made competition fierce.
Staff who once worked for modest pay in exchange for the allure of the industry now demand higher salaries and structured career paths. Investors who previously tolerated slow returns are now calling for profitability, and business owners, tired of stagnating margins, are focusing on operational efficiency rather than romantic ideals.
This evolution has led to a notable shift in behaviour among specialty coffee roasters. Many are buying cheaper coffee, diversifying blends, and sourcing from less expensive origins like Brazil.
The trend toward lower-cost coffees has disrupted relationships with long-time suppliers, particularly exporters in high-cost regions like Colombia, who now find themselves squeezed out by cost-conscious buyers.
The roaster-exporter divide
These changes are having ripple effects across the supply chain, particularly for specialty coffee exporters.
Historically, exporters thrived by partnering with small roasters seeking high-end microlots and premium blends. As these roasters grew, exporters scaled their operations accordingly, investing in infrastructure, sales teams, and broader market reach.
However, the lifecycle of roasters has become increasingly predictable – and problematic for exporters. As roasters mature, they shift their focus from sourcing premium coffees to maximising economic value.
They demand lower prices, more financial services, and less personalised attention. Consequently, exporters often find themselves outgrown by their clients, left with high operational costs and an inflated structure that no longer fits the market.
The competitive landscape for exporters has also intensified. More players are entering the market, offering similar services at competitive rates. To survive, exporters are adopting aggressive sales strategies and targeting less saturated markets, such as Eastern Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), rather than the highly competitive US and Australian markets.
“Exporters also face internal challenges,” says Henry. “Attempts to retain clients by slashing margins and diversifying into more commercial coffee segments often undermine their profitability.”
“At the same time, efforts to hire experienced salespeople from rival companies drive up costs, while new hires may fail to deliver the promised client base or consistent sales volumes. The result is a precarious cycle where exporters expand their operations, only to find themselves financially overextended and unable to sustain their business model.”
The roaster’s evolution
For roasters, 2025 will continue to bring challenges that reflect the sector’s maturing dynamics. Once driven by ideological ownership and a focus on quality at all costs, roasters are now prioritising survival and scalability.
“Many are shifting away from relationship-based sourcing models to sourcing strategies that prioritise economic efficiency,” says Henry. “This means fewer high-end microlots and more blends sourced at competitive prices.”
The rise of blends and cheaper origins represents a pragmatic response to tighter budgets and more demanding investors. Roasters are no longer content with breaking even; they want to see dividends and sustainable growth.
As a result, they are immersing themselves in their business operations, focusing on metrics, profitability, and expansion plans.
This pragmatic shift is also reflected in staffing. Roasters now face higher labour costs as experienced employees demand competitive salaries and benefits.
“The days of hiring young, eager staff willing to learn on the job are fading, replaced by a need for skilled account managers who can deliver results quickly,” says Henry.
Those who cannot be compensated in accordance with their skills are leaving specialty coffee for other more lucrative sectors.
The shift in leadership style is equally telling. Inspirational, ideologically driven owners have been replaced by more calculated business managers who are less emotionally invested in the industry’s ideals.
The result is a more competitive market where roasters must balance cost efficiency with the quality standards that define specialty coffee. Their decisions impact not only their own business but also the suppliers and exporters who depend on their orders.
Strategies for exporters to survive in 2025
For specialty coffee exporters, the road ahead is fraught with challenges but also opportunities. To navigate the evolving market dynamics, exporters must adapt their strategies while staying true to their core strengths.
“First, specialty exporters must resist the temptation to scale excessively,” says Henry. “While growing alongside roasters may seem like a logical strategy, it often leads to inflated operational costs and financial vulnerabilities when clients inevitably outgrow them.”
Instead, exporters should focus on remaining small, nimble, and profitable, targeting niche markets and buyers who value their expertise.
“Understanding the client lifecycle is critical,” says Henry. “Exporters must anticipate when roasters will scale and adjust their sourcing strategies accordingly.”
“For instance, they can cultivate relationships with smaller, emerging roasters while continuing to serve established clients on a limited basis. Aggressive sales strategies are also essential.”
Exporters can actively seek new clients in less mature markets, such as Eastern Europe and the GCC, where competition is less intense and opportunities for growth are greater. By diversifying their client base, exporters can mitigate the risk of losing key accounts and stabilise their revenue streams.
“Finally, exporters must embrace innovation,” says Henry. “Whether through digital tools for traceability, new value-added services, or alternative revenue streams like roasting or retail operations, diversification can provide a buffer against market fluctuations. However, this must be approached cautiously to avoid overextending resources.”
Looking ahead
The coffee industry of 2025 will reflect the culmination of a decade of change. Specialty coffee, once defined by its idealism and passion, is maturing into a more pragmatic and competitive sector.
This isn’t the first time the coffee industry finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with inflation, higher prices, and changing consumer demand.
Roasters are redefining their sourcing strategies, while exporters are grappling with the need to adapt to shifting client demands and market dynamics.
For both roasters and exporters, survival will depend on their ability to balance quality with cost efficiency, maintain strong relationships while diversifying their client base, and innovate without losing sight of their core values.
As the industry evolves, those who can navigate these complexities will emerge stronger and better positioned to thrive in an increasingly competitive landscape.
“Ultimately, the coffee industry of 2025 will be shaped not by nostalgia for its ‘golden age,’ but by its willingness to embrace change,” says Henry.
