Uganda is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall over most regions during the upcoming season of March-April-May (MAM season).
It’s important to note that Uganda has two major rainfall seasons, namely, March, April to May (MAM), and September, October, November to December (SOND). However, Northern and parts of Eastern Uganda usually receive substantial rainfall during the months of June-July-August (JJA). The two major rainfall seasons are separated by two dry periods, namely, December to February, and June to August for the southern sector.
In a statement delivered on the floor of Parliament on March, 05, 2025, Beatrice Atim Anywar, the State Minister for the Environment, said a delayed onset of rains is anticipated due to tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean, with the rains establishing around mid-to-late March.
“The onset is expected to be characterized by isolated thunderstorms, strong winds, lightning, and hailstorms in various parts of the country,” Anywar said, adding: “The peak rainfall is expected between mid-April and early May. Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across the country during the MAM season.”
Detailed forecast for the different regions of the country are as follows:
South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rwampara, Kazo, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Kitagwenda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese districts).
The dry condition being experienced is expected to persist until early-March, followed by the onset of rainfall around mid-March. Peak rainfall will occur between mid and late April, with cessation by early June. The region is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
Mid-Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Bunyangabu, Kamwenge, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kibaale, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Kikuube, Hoima, Buliisa and Masindi districts).
This region is currently experiencing dry conditions, which are expected to persist until mid-March, when seasonal rains are expected to begin, peaking from late April to early May, with cessation expected in early June. Overall, the region is expected to experience near-normal rainfall.
Central Region and Lake Victoria Basin
Western areas of Central region (Lyantonde, Sembabule, Mubende, Kasanda, Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Luwero, Nakaseke and Nakasongola districts).
Dry conditions are expected to continue until early March, followed by the onset of rains in mid-March. Peak rainfall will occur between late April and early May, with cessation in early June. Overall, the region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
Central and Western Lake Victoria region: (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Kyotera, Rakai, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana districts)
Dry conditions will persist in this region until early March, with rainfall expected to start between early and mid-March. Peak rainfall is expected by mid to late April, with cessation around early June. The region is forecasted to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
Eastern areas of Central region: (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma districts)
This region is currently experiencing dry conditions. This is expected to persist until early March. Rainfall onset is expected between early and mid-March, peaking by mid to late April, and ending in early June. The region is expected to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
Eastern Uganda
Eastern Lake Victoria and Southeastern region (Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo districts).
The prevailing dry condition will continue until early March, with rains beginning by mid-March. Peak rainfall is expected by mid-April to early May, with cessation around early June. Overall, Near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
Eastern Parts of Kyoga Region (Pallisa, Kibuku, Budaka, Butaleja, Butebo, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Bukedea, and Ngora districts)
Dry conditions are expected to persist until early March, with seasonal rains expected to begin by mid to late March. Peak rainfall is expected around late April to early May, with relaxation by early June. Near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.
Mount Elgon Region (Mbale, Manafwa, Namisindwa, Bududa, Sironko, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo districts)
The prevailing dry conditions are expected to persist until early March, with seasonal rains beginning around mid to late March. Peak rainfall is expected by late April to early May. The rains are expected to relax around early June. Overall, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in this region.
Northern Region
North Eastern region (Katakwi, Amuria, Kapelebyong, Napak, Moroto, Nabilatuk, Nakapiripirit, Amudat, Abim, Kotido, Kaabong and Karenga districts).
The region is currently experiencing dry conditions which are expected to end around mid-March. The seasonal rains are expected between late March and early April. Peak rainfall will occur by mid to late May, with a slight decrease around early June. The region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
North Western (Arua, Maracha, Koboko, Terego, Yumbe, Obongi, Moyo, Adjumani, Madi Okollo, Zombo, Nebbi and Pakwach districts).
The current dry conditions over this region are expected to persist until mid to late March, followed by the onset of rains. Peak rainfall is expected by early to mid-May, with a slight decrease in early June. Near-normal rainfall is expected in this region.
Southeastern areas of Northern region (Dokolo, Amolatar, Alebtong, Lira, Kole, Otuke, Pader, Kitgum, Apac, and Agago districts)
The region is currently experiencing dry conditions which are expected to end by early to mid-March. The seasonal rains are expected around mid to late March. Peak rainfall will occur by early May, followed by a slight decrease around early June. The region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall
The potential impacts of the expected weather during MAM 2025
The Minister said the anticipated weather conditions may result in both challenges and opportunities.
Negative Impacts
- Waterlogging and leaching, particularly in low-lying areas with poor drainage.
- Increased pest and disease outbreaks, especially in mono-cropped zones and vegetable farms (fungal and bacterial diseases).
- Crop destruction due to flash floods, hailstorms, and strong winds.
- Soil erosion and loss of fertility in overgrazed or sloping lands.
- Increased vector-borne diseases such as tick infestations, foot-and-mouth disease, and mosquito-borne illnesses.
Positive Impacts
- Increased water availability for domestic use and for production.
- Favorable conditions for perennial crops such as coffee (Robusta), bananas, and pasture growth.
- Improved soil moisture levels to support crop yields.
Recommended measures to be undertaken to mitigate the risks and maximize the benefits of the expected rainfall are:-
- Timely planting: Farmers should plant at the onset of the rains and prioritize high-yielding, drought-resistant crop varieties.
- Crop selection: Longer-maturing crops should be planted early in the season, followed by short-duration crops.
- Agronomic practices: Farmers should apply timely weeding, proper spacing, thinning, and harvesting.
- Soil and water conservation: Techniques such as mulching, contour bunding, fanya juu/fanya chini trenches, and drainage channels should be adopted.
- Water harvesting: Communities should collect and store rainwater for future use.
- Pest and disease surveillance: Farmers should regularly monitor fields and report outbreaks to extension officers. Integrated pest management techniques, such as intercropping and use of trap crops, should be promoted.
- Disaster preparedness: Authorities should ensure urban drainage systems are cleared to prevent flooding, and communities should be advised on safe water use to prevent waterborne diseases such as typhoid.
- Public health vigilance: District health offices should intensify disease surveillance and respond swiftly to outbreaks.
“… the forecast for this season indicates that near-normal to above-normal rainfall will be received over most parts of Uganda, with significant implications on agriculture, food security, water resources, and health, among others. All stakeholders need to use this forecast for strategic planning and informed decision-making to enhance food security, protect livelihoods, and strengthen climate resilience. My Ministry will continue to provide timely weather updates to guide national and community-level planning and decision making,” Anywar said.
