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Here’s Uganda’s Seasonal Rainfall Outlook For June To August

Farmers can grow vegetables during this period if they can irrigate

The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has released the seasonal rainfall outlook for June to August 2021. UNMA says the June, July, August (JJA) period is normally dry season over most parts of South western, Central, Lake Victoria basin and parts of Eastern region but a continuation of rainy season for northern Uganda. It usually marks the end of the first rainfall season and a harvesting season for crops in most parts of the country.

In a statement issued by Deus Bamanya, the UNMA Executive Director, the Authority says it has been observed that the major physical conditions likely to influence the weather conditions over Uganda and the rest of the countries in the Greater Horn of African region for the forecast period of June to August 2021 are: The neutral state of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over tropical Pacific Ocean; the current neutral and weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to develop for July to August period 2021 and the influence of regional circulation patterns, topographical features and large inland water bodies.

Based on the above considerations as well as details of the climatology of Uganda and scientific tools used for climate analysis and prediction, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has come up with the following detailed seasonal rainfall outlook for JJA 2021 as follows:

General forecast

Overall, there is an increased likelihood of normal with tendency to above normal (enhanced) rainfall conditions over the northern and eastern parts of the country while the remaining areas are expected to experience near normal conditions.

 The Breakdown of the Forecast for each region

Western region

Central Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Bunyangabu, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Kikube and Kibaale) districts.

This region has been experiencing dry conditions since mid-May which is expected to persist up to late June to early July when occasional rainfall is expected to set in and continue up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, near normal (near average) rainfall is expected to prevail over most parts of this region.

South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Rvvampara, Kazo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, lsingiro, lbanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi, Kitagwenda and Kasese) districts

Dry conditions have been prevailing over this region since mid-May which are expected to continue up to early / mid-July, thereafter, occasional showers are expected to set in and continue until the end August. Overall, near normal (average) with tendency to below normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the region.

LAKE VICTORIA BASIN AND CENTRAL REGION

Northern and Southern parts of Central (Nakasongola, Luwero, Nakaseke, Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Mubende, Kasanda, Lwengo, Lyantonde, Sembabule, and Rakai) districts.

This region has been experiencing isolated rainfall showers and thunderstorms which is gradually reducing with dry conditions expected to set in around mid-June up to early July.

Thereafter, occasional rainfall punctuated by some dry spells is expected to prevail and continue up to the end of the season. Overall, there are high chances of near normal (near average) rainfall over most parts of the region.

Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma) districts.

The region has been experiencing occasional rains which are expected to continue until mid to late June when relatively dry conditions are expected to prevail till mid-July. The occasional rainfall is expected to prevail towards the end of forecast period. Overall, there are high chances of near normal (near average) rainfall conditions over most parts of the region.

Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Mpigi, Butambala, Gomba, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, and Mityana) districts

The region has been experiencing occasional rainfall with dry conditions over most parts which are expected to continue up to the end of June. Thereafter, isolated showers are expected to prevail until end of the forecast period. Overall, near normal (near average) rainfall is expected over most parts of this region.

Eastern Lake Victoria Basin: (Jinja, Bugiri, Busia, Mayuge, Namayingo and Tororo) districts.

Isolated rainfall showers that are being experienced over several parts of this region are expected to continue until late-June. Thereafter, occasional rains punctuated by dry spells are expected to continue up to the end of the forecast period. Overall, near normal (average) rainfall with a tendency to above average (wetter than usual condition) is expected over most parts of this region.

EASTERN REGION

South Eastern: (lganga, Kamuli, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, and Butaleja) districts

The current dry conditions with isolated showers being experienced over this region are expected to continue up to late-June when occasional rains are expected to set in and prevail until the end of the season. Overall, there are high chances of this area receiving normal (average) with a slight tendency to above normal rainfall conditions.

Eastern Central: (Pallisa, Budaka, Butebo, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Bududa, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Kalaki, Serere andSoroti) districts.

The region has been experiencing dry conditions punctuated with isolated showers, which are expected to continue until mid-July. Thereafter, rainy conditions punctuated by some dry spells are expected up to the end of the season. Overall, there are higher chances of this region experiencing near normal (near average) tending to above normal rainfall.

North Eastern: (Amuria, Kapelebyong, Katakwi, Nabilatuk, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Amudat, Kaabong and Karenga) districts

The region has been experiencing occasional rains which are expected to continue up to late June when steady rains are expected to set in up to the end of forecast period. Overall, near normal with a tendency to above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of this region.

NORTHERN REGION

North Western (Arua, Maracha, Terego, Koboko,Yumbe, Moyo, Adjumani, Obongi, MadiOkolo, Zombo, Nebbi and Pakwach) districts

The occasional rains which are being experienced over this region are likely to continue up to late-June when the steady rains are expected to set in and progress up to the end of the season.

Overall, near normal rainfall conditions are to prevail over most parts of the region.

Eastern Northern Parts: (Kitgum, Lamwo, Agago, Lira, Otuke, Pader, Alebtong, Kole, and Dokolo) districts

Most parts of this region have been experiencing occasional showers which are expected to continue up to late-June. Thereafter, steady rains punctuated by some dry spells are expected to get established until the end of the forecast season. Overall, there are high chances for this region receiving near normal with a slight tendency to above normal rainfall

Central Northern Parts: (Gulu, Nwoya, Amuru Apac, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts

The region has been experiencing isolated rainfall conditions which are expected to continue up to late-June. These rains are likely to relax around mid to late July. Thereafter, steady rains are expected to set in and continue up to the end of the season. Overall, there are high chances for near normal with slight tendency to above normal rainfall (wetter conditions) over this region.

Note:

Above Normal: This is when the total rainfall is above 125% of the long – term -mean (LTM). Impact on socio-economic activities is mostly boosted especially in the modest degrees of above average.

Normal: This is when the total rainfall is in the range of 75% to 125%of the LMT. This range of rainfall is expected to adequately support the normal socio-economic activities for the various sectors.

Below Normal: This is when the total rainfall is below 75% of the LTM. Under this range there are high chances for socio-economic activities being stressed, the level of stress increasing with increasing rainfall deficiency.

Accuracy: This forecast is up to 78% accurate. It is supported by useful objective forecast guidance and inputs drawn from a wide range of sources including the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Producing Centres (WMO GPCs). These inputs were combined into a national consensus forecast using deterministic and probabilistic modeling alongside expert analysis and interpretation to obtain the national rainfall forecast for the June to August 2021 season.

General: The forecast is based on (3) months season (June to August 2021). However local and  monthly variations might occur as the season progresses. Although sporadic heavy rainfall is  most probable over locations with above normal rainfall, extended dry spells and below normal rainfall (drier than usual conditions) may occur in areas with an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall and vice versa. The degrees of wetness may also vary in regions of near normal to above normal rainfall. The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) will continue to monitor the evolution of relevant weather systems particularly the state of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and issue appropriate updates and advisories to the users regularly.

Taddewo William Senyonyi
https://www.facebook.com/senyonyi.taddewo
William is a seasoned business and finance journalist. He is also an agripreneur and a coffee enthusiast.

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