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Global Coffee Production Forecast To Fall By 8.5 Million Bags

A Ugandan farmer drying coffee beans. World coffee production is set to fall 

 

World coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast to be 167.5 million, down 8.5 million bags from the previous year, Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) has revealed in its monthly report for May 2022.

Quoting United States Department of Agriculture, Coffee: World Markets and Trade report, UCDA says the decline will mainly be due to Brazil’s lower production as Arabica trees enter the off‐year biennial production cycle and dry weather. As a result of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to drop by 17% to 30 million bags. World green bean exports are expected to reduce by 3% to 117.2 million bags as lower exports from Brazil will be offset by higher shipments from Vietnam,” the report says.

It adds that Global consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 164.9 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil (United States Department of Agriculture, Coffee: World Markets and Trade report).

Uganda coffee exports in May 2022 amounted to 455,166 60-kilo bags worth US$ 73.01 million  (Shs272.1bn).

UCDA’s  monthly report for May 2022 says this comprised 350,312 bags of Robusta valued at US $47.31 million and 104,854 bags of Arabica valued at US$ 25.71 million.

This was a decrease of 7.75% in quantity but an increase of 55.15% in value compared to the same month last year.

By comparing quantity of coffee exported by type in the same month of last Coffee Year (May 2021), Robusta decreased by 18.35% in quantity but increased by 26.21% in value.

The report says Arabica exports increased by 62.86% and 168.41% in quantity and value respectively.

The decrease in Robusta exports was mainly attributed to lower yields this year that were characterized by drought in some regions. This led to a shorter main harvest season in Central and Eastern regions. The increase in Arabica coffee exports is due to an on-year cycle characteristic of Arabica coffee production,” the report reads in part.

It adds that coffee exports for the 12 months (June 2021-May 2022) amounted to 6,346,594 60-kilo bags worth US$ 837.14 million compared to 5,880,179 60-kilo bags valued at US$ 540.54 million the previous year (June 2020- May 2021).

 

Taddewo William Senyonyi
https://www.facebook.com/senyonyi.taddewo
William is a seasoned business and finance journalist. He is also an agripreneur and a coffee enthusiast.

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