The Uganda shilling hit a bit of volatility, trading sideways as pockets of demand emerged amid low fx supply in the week ending 1st November 2019.
The unit traded above the support level of 3700 for most sessions of the week.
In the interbank money
market, there was sufficient liquidity with overnight rate holding at 6% while
one week remained at the previous week’s of 9%.
The fixed income market had bond reopening in tenors of 2 and 10 year with
preset coupons of 11.00% and 14.250%. The total amount offered for both
maturities was 275 billion. Yields at cut off price for the 2 year were 13.125%
while the 10 year was 14.850%.
In the regional currencies, the Kenya shilling held strong helped by inflows
from horticultural exports and end month NGO conversions.
Demand remained subdued with currency holding up at 103.04/60. The markets were also keenly awaiting the parliament decision on the rate cap.
In Tanzania, the currency
was wobbly, trading at 2300/2310, undermined by elevated demand mainly from
telecoms and importers.
The global markets saw the Euro gain as the US dollar weakened after the
Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year but left open
the question of whether it would cut rates further. The lack of explicit signal
on the future direction was taken as less hawkish than expected, and this drove
the greenback lower. In Britain the pound was stable following the agreement on
an early election, with markets responding positively.
“Outlook (for the Uganda Shilling) indicates that the shilling is likely to
remain bearish as cyclical demand take center stage with importer demand
exerting pressure,” says Stephen Kaboyo, an analyst and Managing Director at
Alpha Capital Partners.
