Finance Minister, Matia Kasaija
A recent decision by United States President Donald Trump to impose global trade tariffs has sparked concern within Uganda’s Parliament, raising questions about the potential impact on the country’s economy and its 2025/26 national budget.
During a session between Parliament’s Finance Committee and the Ministry of Finance to discuss the seven proposed Tax Bills for financing the upcoming budget, Kira Municipality MP Ibrahim Ssemujju was the first to express worry over the development. He questioned how Uganda’s revenue plans could be affected by the new tariffs.
“The Minister has presented the Appropriation Bill 2025 and other tax measures. But as we deliberate on these, there are global developments likely to affect our economy,” said Ssemujju. “Last evening, the US announced sweeping tariffs. We need the Minister to assure us that what we’re doing won’t be rendered irrelevant by such international events, so he doesn’t have to return later for adjustments.”
He drew parallels with a situation two years ago when the Ministry had to revise its financing strategy after global credit markets became too expensive, undermining initial budget assumptions.
“The Minister returned and admitted that the international financial conditions had changed, making borrowing impossible as previously planned. One of the key statements was that we could no longer borrow as much due to those changes. That’s why I’m asking whether these new developments—the US tariffs and issues around USAID—are already influencing our budget process,” Ssemujju added.
His concerns followed Trump’s April 2, 2025, announcement of tariffs on all goods entering the United States, which he framed as a stand against what he called decades of unfair trade practices.
“For years, the United States has been looted and plundered by nations near and far, friend and foe alike,” Trump said. He accused foreign powers of stealing American jobs, ransacking factories, and dismantling the American dream.
In response, State Minister for Finance Henry Musasizi struck a calm tone, acknowledging the US’s financial contributions to Uganda but insisting the country would cope without American aid if necessary.
“Yes, we have received support from the US and we appreciate it. But if their funds don’t come, we shall survive. We’ve already accounted for essential items, especially in the health sector, in the current budget,” Musasizi told the Committee. “You remember when they withdrew funding over the Anti-Homosexuality Act in 2023? We still managed. Our focus now is on building an economy that can sustain itself.”
However, Ssemujju pressed further, expressing dissatisfaction with the Minister’s assurance.
“I’m more concerned about the global trade turmoil than just the USAID issue,” he said. “The measures taken by the US and the resulting backlash have caused widespread panic. I want to know if, in your analysis, you believe Uganda is immune. If so, I’ll go home reassured. But right now, everyone else is sounding the alarm.”
In response, Musasizi promised to prepare a detailed analysis for the Committee on the potential effects of the US tariffs on Uganda’s economy.
“Let us prepare a simple paper and bring it to this Committee,” he said.
According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), a data visualization platform for international trade, Uganda’s top exports to the United States in 2023 included coffee ($58.2 million), vanilla ($16.2 million), and casein ($13.4 million). Over the past five years, Ugandan exports to the US have grown at an average annual rate of 14.6%, rising from $66.9 million in 2018 to $132 million in 2023.
Conversely, US exports to Uganda in 2023 totaled approximately $220 million, with aircraft parts topping the list at $24.7 million.
