The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) on February 20, 2018 released Uganda’s seasonal climate outlook for March to May of this year.
March to May (MAM) constitutes the first major rainfall season in Uganda. During the 48th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa held in Mombasa, Kenya from 12th to 13th February 2018, the national, regional and international climate scientists reviewed the state of the global climate system and its implications on the seasonal rainfall over the East African region.
Dr. Festus Luboyera, the Executive Director at UNMA said overall, there is an increased probability for near normal rainfall over much of Uganda, except the western sector of the country which is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall.
“It should be noted that the onset of seasonal rains is expected to be characterised by severe thunderstorms and hailstorms over several parts of the country,” he said.
Eastern Uganda
Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern (Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo) districts have been experiencing dry conditions since December 2017.
The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late February to early March and the peak is expected around mid to late April through early May. The cessation is expected around late May. Overall, this region has a high chance of receiving near normal rainfall.
Eastern Central
Eastern Central (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa,Namisindwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Amolatar, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora) districts expect the onset of seasonal rains around early to mid-March.
The peak rains are expected around late April and the cessation around mid-June.
Overall the region is expected to receive near normal rains.
North Eastern Region
North Eastern Region (Katakwi, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak,
Amudat, Amuria, and Kaabong) districts like most parts of the country have been experiencing dry conditions since December 2017. However, irregular light rains are expected to set in around mid to late March, which will eventually lead to the onset of steady rains by early April. The peak rains are expected around early to mid-May, and then moderate relaxation around mid-June.
Overall, there are high chances for near normal rainfall over this region.
Northern Uganda
Eastern parts of northern region (Lira, Alebtong, Kitgum, Agago, Otuke, Pader, Kole, and Dokolo) districts expect the onset of normal seasonal rainfall around early to mid-March.
Moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid-June. Overall, near normal rainfall is expected during this season.
Central Northern Parts (Gulu, Omoro, Apac, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts are currently experiencing dry spells which are expected to continue up to mid/late March when the onset of the seasonal rains is expected to get established.
The moderate relaxation of rains is expected around mid-June. Overall, there are high chances for near normal rains over this region.
North Western (Moyo, Arua, Maracha, Nebbi, Pakwach, Adjumani, Yumbe, Koboko, Terego and Zombo) districts expect the onset of seasonal rainfall around late February to early March.
The peak of the rainfall is expected around late April 2017 and moderate relaxation is expected around mid-June. Overall, there are high chances for near normal with a tendency to above normal over this region.
Western Uganda
South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts have been experiencing dry conditions since December 2017 apart from areas around Kigezi region which have been experiencing isolated showers.
The onset of steady rains is expected to be established by late February to early March. The peak of the rains is expected around mid-April and the cessation around late May to early June.
Overall, the region is expected to receive near normal with a tendency to above normal rainfall during this season.
Western Central (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kibaale, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Hoima, Buliisa and Masindi) districts have been experiencing relatively dry conditions since January.
The onset of seasonal rains is expected to be established around late February to early March.
The peak is likely to occur around mid to late April. The cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around early to mid-June. Overall, there are high chances for near normal rains with slight tendency to above normal over this region.
Lake Victoria Basin and Central Areas
Central and Western Lake Victoria Basin (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts have been experiencing relatively dry conditions punctuated with isolated rainfall since December 2017.
The onset of seasonal rains in this region is expected around late February to early March and thereafter, rains are likely to intensify with the peak occurring around mid to late April. The cessation is expected around early to mid-June 2018.
Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall over this region.
Western Parts of Central (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai) districts are currently experiencing dry spells which are expected to continue up to late February to early March when the onset of the seasonal rains is likely to get established.
The peak of rains is likely to occur around mid-April. The cessation is expected around early/mid-June. Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall over this region.
Eastern parts of Central (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma) districts are also currently experiencing dry spells which are expected to continue up to late February when irregular rains will set in. The onset of seasonal rains is expected around late February to early March. The peak of rains is expected around mid to late April.
The cessation is expected around early to mid-June. Overall, near normal rainfall is expected over this region.
The Implications Of The Current Forecast
Generally, most areas around the country are expected to receive near normal with a slight tendency to above normal in some areas, UNMA boss said.
“The implication is that these areas will receive rainfall within average range and in some areas above the average of their respective long term means. Rainfall is expected to adequately support the normal socio-economic activities for the various sectors,” he said, adding that there are high chances that Eastern Karamoja region, parts of Isingiro and Rakai, and parts of Pakwach and Nebbi are expected to experience below normal rainfall during this season. This implies that the total rainfall expected over these regions is below 75% of the Long Term Mean (LTM).
