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Here’s March-May 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Over Uganda

The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has released the March-May 2020 seasonal rainfall outlook over Uganda indicating that the rains will be above normal in most parts of the country.

In a statement dated February 10, 2020, Dr. Festus Luboyera, the UNMA

Executive Director says, the March to May (MAM 2020) forecast presents good prospects for improved agricultural production across the country.

“Farmers and other agricultural practitioners are highly encouraged to take advantage of the expected good rains to optimize food and crop production,” he says.

He adds: “The general advisories include: early prepositioning of seed and other agro/livestock-inputs in/or near agricultural/pastoralist communities, timely land preparation and early planting, expansion of farming acreages, proper seed selection to optimize yields, water harvesting and micro-irrigation (where necessary), maximizing agroforestry/plantation tree planting, restocking livestock farms, fish ponds and apiaries; and intensifying agricultural extension/veterinary services across all agricultural/pastoral communities, among others.”

March-April-May (MAM) constitutes the first major rainfall season over Uganda.

“Overall, there is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal (wetter than average) rainfall over several parts of the country. The onset of the seasonal rains is expected to be early in South-western (late February) with a gradual progression in other parts of the country. The rainfall onset over the Eastern, Northern and North-eastern Uganda is expected to get established around mid-March to early April. The MAM2020 rainfall season is highly expected to be associated with thunderstorm activity that is likely to be characterized by lightning, strong winds and hailstones in some parts of the country,” UNMA says.

Below is UNMA’s rainfall outlook for March to May 2020 across the country;

South and Central Western Uganda

South Western: (Kisoro , Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rwampara, Kazo,  Rukungiri, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese) districts.

The region has been experiencing dry conditions in most areas punctuated by unseasonal rains since January. The onset of the rains is expected around late February to early March. The peak of the rains is expected around early to mid-April and cessation around late May. Overall, the region is expected to receive above normal rainfall (exceeding their average rainfall).

Western Central:

 (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kibaale, Kikuube, Bunyagabu, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Hoima, Buliisa, Masindi, Kiryandongo) districts.

The region has been experiencing isolated light showers and dry conditions since January.

The onset of seasonal rains associated with isolated outbreaks light showers and thunderstorms are expected in around early to mid-March.

 Thereafter, steady rains are expected to get established with the  peak  of the rains expected during the month of April. Cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around late May to early June.

Overall, there are high chances for the region to receive near normal rains with a slight tendency above norm al rains.

Central Region and Lake Victoria Basin

Western areas of Central region: (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi,  Kakumiro, Kasanda, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule, Western Masaka, Lyantonde, Kyotera and Rakai) districts.

The region has been experiencing isolated rains and some dry conditions since January.

The onset of seasonal rainfall associated with occasional outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms is expected around early to mid -March.

The peak of the rains is expected to occur around mid to end of April . While the Cessation of the seasonal rains is expected to occur around late May to early June.

Overall, there are high chances of near normal rainfall conditions.

Central and Western Lake Victoria Central region

(Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Eastern Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana) districts

The region has been experiencing off seasonal rainfall over several areas since January. The onset of the rains associated with isolated outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms is expected to get established around early to mid-March.

The peak of the rains is expected to occur around mid early to mid -April with cessation around late May. Overall, there are high chances for most of the areas late May.

 Overall, there are high chances for most of the areas to receive near normal with the tendency  to above normal rainfall during this season.

Eastern Lake Victoria and South Eastern Lake Victoria

(Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Bugweri, Busia Busia and Tororo) districts

This region has been experiencing outbursts of rain punctuated by dry spells since January in some areas.

The on se t of the seasonal rains is expected around early to mid -March. The peak is expected around is mid -April to early May.

The cessation of the rains is expected around late May to early June. Overall, this region has a high chance of receiving near normal to above normal rainfall.

Eastern Central

(Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Butebo, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Namisindwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora) districts.

This region has been experiencing dry conditions with occasional outbursts of unseasonal rains since January.

Onset of the seasonal rains is expected around mid to late March which will eventually lead  to steady rain by early to mid -April.

The peak of the rains is expected around Mid -May and thereafter moderate relaxation around mid relaxation around mid -June.

 Overall, high chances of above normal rains are expected to occur over this region.

 North Eastern Region

 (Katakwi, Amuria, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Kapeleby Abim, Napak, Kapeleby Abim, Napak, Kapelebyong, Nabilatuk, Karenga, Amudat, Kalenga and Kaabong) districts.

This region has been experiencing dry conditions characterized by isolated rains since January. Outbursts of irregular rains are expected in mid -March which will eventually lead to the  onset of steady rain by late March to mid -April.

The peak of the rains is of the rains around early to mid mid -May, and thereafter moderate relaxation around mid -June. Overall, there are high chances for above normal rains to occur over this region.

North Western

(Arua, Maracha, Moyo, Obongi, Madi Okollo, Zombo, Nebbi, Pakwach, Yumbe, Koboko, Terego and Adjumani) districts.

The region has been experiencing dry conditions with sporadic rains since January.

The onset of the seasonal rains is expected around mid -March to  early April with the peak of the rains of the rains around late April to early May, followed by moderate relaxation around mid -June.

 Overall, there are high chances for this region to receive near normal with a slight tendency to above rains.

Central Northern Parts

 (Gulu, Omoro, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, and Oyam) districts.

The region has been experiencing dry conditions with occasional light rains since January. The onset of the seasonal rains is expected to get established around mid-March to early April with the peak of the rains expected to occur around mid-April to early May. Thereafter, a moderate relaxation of the rain is expected around mid-June. Overall, this region is expected to receive near normal with a slight tendency to above normal rainfalls.

 Southern eastern areas of northern region

 (Amolatar, Lira, Alebtong, Pader, Otuke, Kitgum, Agago, Kole, and Dokolo) districts.

The region has been experiencing dry conditions, characterized by sporadic rain since January.

The onset of the rains is expected around mid -March to early April with the peak of the rain expected around mid to end of April.

Thereafter, moderate relaxation of the rainfall is expected around mid -June.

Overall, this region is expected to receive near normal with a tendency above normal rainfall during this season.

Explanation of terminologies

Above Normal: This is when the total rainfall is above 125% of the long – term -mean (LTM). Impact on socio-economic activities is mostly boosted especially in the modest degrees of above average.

Normal: This is when the total rainfall is in the range of 75% to 125%of the LMT. This range of rainfall is expected to adequately support the normal socio-economic activities for the various areas.

Below Normal: This is when the total rainfall is below 75% of the LTM. Under this range there are high chances for socio-economic activities being stressed, the level of stress increasing with increasing rainfall deficiency.

Taddewo William Senyonyi
https://www.facebook.com/senyonyi.taddewo
William is a seasoned business and finance journalist. He is also an agripreneur and a coffee enthusiast.

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