The number of daily COVID-19 infections is expected to increase next week by 20. This is according to modelling carried out by the National Planning Authority-NPA.
According to a report issued by NPA, the country will experience an increase in new COVID-19 cases from the week starting 15 to 24 August 2021. NPA also forecasts an increase of 40 new cases every day in that week.
They attribute the increase in cases to the easing of the lockdown especially on public transport which has now made it possible for people to move across district borders, a fact that is likely to foster the spread of the disease.
These predictions come at a time when the country is reporting a decrease in daily infections and the positivity rate.
Data from the health ministry shows that the positivity rate of tested cases has decreased from 17 percent in mid-July to below 5 percent. The number of cases also seem to have reduced from three digits to two.
Eng JB Muwanguzi, in charge of modelling at NPA, says these figures should not excite the public.
At the moment, the country on average reports 223 new infections. While this figure is lower than the earlier projected 336 cases of the lockdown was lifted, Muwanguzi says in the next seven days, the number of new infections is expected to increase.
He says if the cases continue to rise, the country might find itself in the position it was in June where an average of 1,113 cases was reported every day.
Prof Rhoda Wanyenze, the dean of the school of public health at Makerere University and also a member of the COVID-19 ministerial scientific committee says the decrease or increase in new cases depends on how the public responds to public health measures like wearing face masks, washing hands and avoiding crowded places.
“The public controls the transmission of the disease. If people wear their masks, there might not be another wave. If we become complacent, we shall get more cases that might lead to a third wave. Right now the cases are few and can remain this way or even decrease depending on adherence to SOPs,” she said.
At the moment, the delta variant which is believed to be more transmissible is detected in over 97 percent of the cases. Scientists believe that it is driving infection rates in the country.
In addition to cases falling, Muwanguzi says the number of hospitalized cases in the country has also reduced.
“Over the second wave period, there has been a total of about 21,201 hospitalizations in both government and private hospitals. As of 4th August, there were 581 COVID-19 patients in hospitals with 39 in critical care while 192 are severe and 161 are moderate. This shows the rate of hospitalization has fallen by 97 percent,” he said.
Muwanguzi says while the reductions in cases and hospitalizations are good news, it should not be taken for granted.
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