Coffee prices are likely to rise even more in 2025. And while there are differences between arabica and canephora (robusta) coffee species, both are taking a hit next year.
Prices for higher-quality arabica coffee beans have gone up over 80% in just a year. That puts coffee prices at their highest level in almost 50 years. The last time they hit this high, in the 1970s, it was due to a major frost that killed off millions of coffee plants in Brazil. Weather is also to blame this time. A combination of droughts and heavy rain in Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee grower, producing around 39% of the world’s coffee beans, has led to major coffee crop failures.
The next-biggest producer, Vietnam, which grows 17% of the world’s coffee, has seen its coffee prices rise by over 50% in the first 11 months this year. Vietnam predominantly grows lower-quality robusta coffee beans. Robusta’s used in cheaper products like instant coffee, so it’s considered a more budget-friendly option, one reason it’s common to use instant coffee in baking. According to Statista, that will continue to be the case. But compared to past years, when robusta beans were roughly half the price of arabica, the rest of 2024 and 2025 are expected to see prices at only 20% to 30% cheaper than arabica.
The news for coffee lovers gets worse too. Coffee plants thrive in an environment that’s neither too dry nor too wet (and as the frost situation in Brazil illustrates, they need warm temperatures around 70 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit). If it’s too wet or dry, they either die or produce less coffee, and less coffee (combined with ever-growing demand) means prices go up. The big problem is that these kinds of extreme weather events are likely to happen more frequently in the future thanks to climate change. That means the droughts and rains that caused Brazil’s coffee crop to shrink in 2024 probably shouldn’t be considered a freak occurrence, and repeats of such weather could cause further price increases.
Of course, the price a farmer sets for coffee isn’t the same as what you pay at a café or supermarket. The supply chain involves various stakeholders, such as roasters and wholesalers, all of whom charge for their goods and services before it gets to the point of sale. Experts who spoke to the BBC suggest that coffee companies have absorbed some of these vendors’ price increases recently to keep customers happy but are likely to pass new price increases on to customers in 2025. Exactly how much more you’ll pay depends on a number of factors, but you can expect at least a 50-cent per pound increase, up to as much as $1.
-Chowhound
