Uganda’s Energy Minister, Dr. Monica Musenero
Uganda is relying on oil and gas to achieve the tenfold growth in the near future.
Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy is a national economic framework aiming to expand the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from roughly $50 billion to $500 billion by the year 2040. Under this arrangement, the focus will be in ATMS.
ATMS stands for Agro-industrialization, Tourism, Minerals (and mineral-based industrialization), and Science, Technology, and Innovation. Oil and gas fall under Minerals.
Speaking at a high-level discussion on Friday at the Uganda Media Centre, Energy Minister, Dr. Monica Musenero said the discussion is no longer about the country’s first oil but rather the value from this ”black gold.”
She was speaking about the theme: From wealth to wealth: How oil and gas can drive Uganda’s tenfold growth.
”So, how do we extract value from this black gold (as they call it). How do we extract the tenfold growth? We have not yet completed the discussion of how we translate this to benefit an average Uganda. There lies a conversation that we must now have, as the country races to its first oil. Oil has not arrived in our economy without a history. Over the last decade, this nation has demonstrated the ability to grow,” said Dr. Musenero.
Dr. Musenero also noted that the country should also focus on socio-economic transformation, not just growth.
”Social economic transformation will take us to tenfold growth. So, how do we take oil to drive social-economic transformation? The tenfold signals the beginning of a new phase. A qualitative leap (not just numbers) builds a deeper industrial capability. Stronger domestic enterprise, more sophisticated exports and a growing power to create and retain value through knowledge. As the oil begins to flow from the ground, it should then lead to a social economic transformation which will signal tenfold growth or a qualitative leap. The growth is the same, while socio-economic development is the change of structure, the quality and capability of our people, and it becomes visible when we begin to do things which we have not been able to do before. for instance, exporting the value-added products,” added Dr. Musenero, adding: ”Growth is an increase in the quantity of the same while socio-economic transformation changes the form.”
She also noted that failure by Uganda to use oil and gas as a driver for socio-economic development could place the country’s oil as a curse rather than a blessing.
Citing Botswana, Dr. Musenero said the southern African nation’s diamond mineral dropped after the emergence of artificial diamond.
”Diamond accounts for 90% of its export earnings. However, when they invented artificial diamonds, the value of diamonds dropped,” said Dr. Musenero. ”We must deliberately learn, engage, execute, if we are to benefit from this endowment.”
”Our challenge now is how do we make sure that we protect the oil from the effects of time, fluctuation, and the value of that is still us the people.”
”It is only the human being who has the knowledge to transform. The tenfold growth will be dependent on how the people receive this endowment. If we sell (the oil) to consume, I can promise the oil will get finished. Uganda intends to make oil a great blessing, not a curse. Our oil must fuel socio-economic transformation. We must set our agenda right. We should get to a point where we don’t rely on oil. The chess is now for us to extract value from the oil: creation of new products from the petroleum, and use the oil money to fuel us to go far,” she said.
If we are to benefit from oil and gas, Dr. Musevenro said we must leverage knowledge transfer, technology domestication, local contract empowerment, national content, and value addition among others.
”Oil and gas will drive Uganda’s tenfold growth not because Uganda produces and sells petroleum, but if we can convert the financial, technology, and the eknowledge flows of the petroleum economy into capability, that spreads across the whole economy. Our petroleum economy is historic but signals a complete thinking,” said Dr. Musenero.
Gloria Sebikari, the Corporate Affairs Manager at Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) revealed that the entire oil and gas project is valued at US$20 billion. So far, she said US$12. 2 billion has been invested, with additional US$2.7 billion expected in 2026. Speaking to the theme, Sekabiri said that the country’s oil and gas projects go beyond production to sustainability. For instance, she said that about US$1.5 billion has gone into both tax and non-tax revenue, powering other areas of growth.
”’Now, these taxes are being translated into long term infrastructure, seed funding for example for Karuma dam, that gives us energy, the Hoima Stadium, etc. There will be more than what we have seen before. There will be more than US$ 1 to 2 billion in taxes per year,” added Sekabiri. ”We must continue to emphasize technology transfer. Oil and gas is part of our energy mix. We will develop LPG (gas as is locally known), we are helping to stop the cutting down of trees, reducing the emission and health burden from smoke from charcoal or wood. We continue the path of sound governance, promoting strategic investment, and strong institutions that promote meaningful participation,” concluded Sekabiri.
The National Coordinator- Civil Society Coalition on Oil and Gas in Uganda, James Opito, said that Uganda ought to take lessons from countries that have struggled with their natural resources, so Uganda can make the right choice and do the right thing.
”We have to be cautious about the need to diversify. Invest into other sectors such as agriculture, using the oil revenue. Thus, driving the tenfold. we need a robust accountability framework in place,”
