Dry Spell To Run Up to Mid-August Over Most Parts of Uganda As Detailed Breakdown Of Forecast By District Revealed

The Ministry of Water and Environment has released the June to August 2025 seasonal climate outlook over Uganda, with the overall rainfall forecast for the June, July, and August (JJA) 2025 period indicating  that the northwestern and eastern regions are expected to receive above-normal (above-average) rainfall, while parts of central and southwestern Uganda are expected to experience near normal conditions (the normal dry season).

It’s important to note that the June, July, and August (JJA) period typically marks the dry season across the southern parts of the country, particularly in the southwestern, central, Lake Victoria basin, and some parts of the eastern region. It signifies the end of the first rainy season and serves as the main harvesting period for seasonal crops in several areas.

However, in the northern and eastern regions, the JJA rains continue as an extension of the March-April-May (MAM) rainy season.

Detailed Breakdown Of The Forecast By Region

Western Uganda

Southwestern Highlands (Districts: Kabale, Kisoro, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Rukiga, Rubanda, Bushenyi, Rubirizi, Mitooma, Buhweju, Sheema and Rwampara)

This region has been experiencing intermittent rainfall, signaling the gradual end of the March, April-May (MAM) 2025 rainy season.

The cessation is expected to be fully established by early to mid-June, after which dry conditions are expected to prevail until mid- August when isolated rains are expected to set in until the end of the season.

Overall, near-normal dry conditions are expected during the forecast period.

Southwestern Lowlands (Districts: Ntungamo, Isingiro, Mbarara, Ibanda, Kiruhura, Kazo)

The current dry conditions occasionally punctuated by isolated showers being experienced in this region are expected to continue until around late July to early August. After that, isolated light showers are expected to develop and persist through the remainder of the season.

Overall, below-normal (suppressed) rainfall is expected to dominate across most parts of the region.

Rwenzori sub region (Districts: Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Bunyangabu)

This region has been experiencing scattered showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to continue until mid-June, thereafter, dry conditions are expected to persist until mid-August, after which, isolated light rains are expected to set in until the end of the forecast period (the isolated light rains are anticipated to return and continue until the season ends).

Overall, near-normal rainfall conditions (representing the usual dry season pattern) are expected across the region.

Central Parts of Western Uganda (Districts: Masindi, Buliisa, Hoima, Kikuube, Kakumiro, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kitagwenda, Kagadi, Kiryandongo, Kibaale)

This region is currently experiencing intermittent showers and thunderstorms, indicating the gradual cessation of the first rainfall season, which is expected to be fully established by mid-June.

Thereafter, dry conditions are expected to prevail until mid-August, when light rains are expected to return and continue until the end of the forecast period across this sub region.

However, Masindi and Kiryandongo districts are expected to have a slight relaxation around mid-June and thereafter the rainfall resumes until end of the rainfall season.

Overall, near normal (near average) with slight tendency to above normal rainfall is expected over some parts of this region.

Central Region And Lake Victoria Basin

Western Central Region (Districts: Lyantonde, Sembabule, Mubende, Kasanda, Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Luwero, Nakaseke, and Nakasongola)

The intermittent rainfall currently being experienced in this region is expected to persist until around mid-June. Afterwards, dry conditions are expected to prevail until mid-August, when occasional outbreaks of rainfall are expected to begin and continue until the end of the forecast period. Overall, there is a high likelihood of near-normal conditions characterized by typical dry weather conditions across the region.

Central and Western Lake Victoria Region (Districts: Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Kyotera, Rakai, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana)

This region is currently experiencing generally dry conditions with occasional isolated rainfall, which are expected to persist until early June. Thereafter, dry weather conditions are expected to prevail until mid to late August. Occasional outbreaks of rain are anticipated to begin after this period and is expected to continue until the end of the forecast period. Overall, near-normal rainfall conditions are expected over this region.

Eastern Central Region (Districts: Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, and Buvuma)

This region has been experiencing intermittent rainfall with thundershowers, which are expected to continue until around mid-June.

After that, dry conditions are expected to prevail until mid-August.

Occasional rainfall is expected to return thereafter, and continue for the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, the region is expected to experience near-normal conditions, characterized by typical dry weather conditions usually experienced during this time of year.

Eastern Uganda

Eastern Lake Victoria and Southeastern Region (Districts: Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, Iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia, and Tororo)

This region is currently experiencing intermittent rains which are expected to continue until early to mid-June when dry conditions are expected to get establish and persist until mid-August. Thereafter, occasional rains are expected to set in and prevail until the end of forecast period.

Overall, this region is expected to receive near normal rainfall during this forecast period.

Eastern Parts of Kyoga Region (Districts: Pallisa, Kibuku, Budaka, Butaleja, Butebo, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Bukedea, and Ngora).

The region is currently experiencing isolated outbreak of rains and thunderstorms over several areas, which is expected to continue until mid-June when a slight relaxation will occur. Thereafter, the rains are expected to resume and continue until the end of the forecast period.

Overall, above-normal rainfall is expected in this sub region during the forecast period.

Mount Elgon Region (Districts: Mbale, Manafwa, Namisindwa, Bududa, Sironko, Bulambuli, Kapchorwa, Kween, Bukwo).

This region is currently experiencing isolated showers in several areas which are expected to continue until mid-June, when a slight relaxation in rainfall will occur.

Thereafter, rains are expected to resume and persist through the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, there is a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across the region.

Northern Region

Northeastern Region (Districts: Katakwi, Amuria, Kapelebyong, Napak, Moroto, Nabilatuk, Nakapiripirit, Amudat, Abim, Kotido, Kaabong, and Karenga)

This region is currently experiencing intermittent rainfall, which is expected to persist until mid-June. Thereafter, rains are expected to resume and continue until the end of the forecast period.

Overall, there are high chances of near normal to above-normal rainfall over this region.

Northwestern Region (Districts: Arua, Maracha, Koboko, Terego, Yumbe, Obongi, Moyo, Adjumani, Madi Okollo, Zombo, Nebbi, and Pakwach)

The current rains being experienced over this region are expected to continue until mid-June when a slight relaxation is expected to occur. Thereafter, occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected to prevail until the end of the forecast period. Overall, above normal (above average) rainfall is expected over the sub region region.

Central Northern Region (Districts: Gulu, Omoro, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam, and Kiryandongo)

The region is currently experiencing occasional heavy rains, which are expected to continue until mid-June when a slight relaxation will occur. Thereafter, outbreak of showers and thunderstorm are expected to prevail until the end of forecast period.

Overall, there are high chances for above-normal (above average) rainfall over this region.

 Eastern Areas of Northern Region (Districts: Dokolo, Amolatar, Alebtong, Lira, Kole, Otuke, Pader, Kitgum, Apac, and Agago)

The region has been experiencing rainfall across several areas, this trend is expected to continue until mid-June, when a slight reduction in rainfall is expected to occur. Thereafter, showers and thunderstorm are predicted to resume and continue until the end of forecast period.

Overall, the region is expected to receive above-normal (above-average) rainfall.

The Ministry of Water urges farmers to use supplementary irrigation during prolonged dry spells.

In a statement signed off by Dr. Alfred Okot Okidi, Permanent Secretary at the Ministry of Water and Environment, Government further advises farmers to  store adequate food, particularly cereals, for household consumption and promote the cultivation of leafy vegetables and the use of drip irrigation systems.

Framers are also urged to adopt proper post-harvest handling techniques to minimize yield losses, such as using super bags, metallic silos, maize cribs, cocoons, tarpaulins, and drying racks.

“Begin land preparation early (towards the end of the June-July-August season) to enable timely planting during the September-October-November (SON) season. Apply supplementary irrigation to support continuous crop growth. Regularly follow early warning weather updates for informed planning,” the Ministry further advises.

Dr. Alfred Okot Oki says the Ministry of Water and Environment, through the Department of Meteorological Services will continue to monitor weather patterns across the country, and regularly issue updates to support planning and decision-making.

“This seasonal forecast should be used together with other forecasts issued at different timescales such as six hourly forecasts, daily forecasts, ten days (dekadal) forecasts, and monthly updates,” Okot says.