Coffee Prices Down 14%, But Farmers Not Making Losses – Minister Tumwebaze Explains Why

The Minister of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Frank K. Tumwebaze (pictured), has told Ugandan farmers not to panic over recent fluctuations in coffee and cocoa prices, saying the decline does not mean farmers are making losses.

In a statement issued on September 20, 2026, Tumwebaze said he had received concerns from farmers, traders and stakeholders over price volatility in the two commodities and sympathised with those affected.

“It is true, the international commodity markets are experiencing a period of adjustment and volatility. However, the current price fluctuation should not be interpreted as a disappearance of demand for coffee or cocoa. It is largely a response to changing expectations in global supply and inventories,” Tumwebaze said.

He said coffee and cocoa prices in Uganda are influenced by production, inventories, weather, shipping, currencies and buying decisions in major producing and consuming countries.

For coffee, Tumwebaze said the international market has come under downward pressure due to increased availability from Brazil and Vietnam.

“The August-September 2026 market analysis reported by Barchart shows that coffee prices have been under pressure as Brazil’s harvest comes to market and Vietnam’s exports increase,” he said.

He cited International Coffee Organization projections of increased global production and USDA projections for growth in the 2026/27 season. By September 3, 2026, Arabica had fallen to a five-week low of about US$3.03 per pound, while Robusta was around US$3,426 per tonne.

“This tells us that the current price movement is not unique to Uganda. It is part of a wider international market adjustment,” Tumwebaze said.

For cocoa, he said London Cocoa prices fell 5.9% in one session after reaching a one-year high, while New York Cocoa also declined by 5.9% on September 3. On September 18, December New York cocoa fell about 7.1% in one day to a seven-week low, largely on expectations of increased near-term supplies.

He said Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest for June 2025-June 2026 increased by 30%, with shipments substantially higher than the previous year, contributing to the correction.

Tumwebaze said the Ministry has been monitoring both international and domestic farm-gate prices.

In September 2025, average farm-gate prices were:

Robusta Kiboko: UGX 6,000-7,000/kg; Robusta FAQ: UGX 13,500-14,000/kg; Arabica parchment: UGX 14,000-15,000/kg; and Drugar: UGX 13,500-14,000/kg.

In the first half of September 2026, indicative prices were:

Robusta Kiboko: UGX 5,000-6,000/kg; Robusta FAQ: UGX 11,500-12,000/kg; Arabica parchment: about UGX 15,500-16,000/kg; and Drugar: UGX 14,000-14,500/kg.

“The change in Robusta FAQ prices, which is the more appropriate benchmark, is UGX 2,000 per kilogramme, which translates to about 14.5% decline,” Tumwebaze said.

“For Arabica parchment, the price moved from UGX 14,500/kg in 2025 to UGX 15,750/kg in 2026, gaining about 8.5 percent.”

He said Uganda has also experienced prolonged drought and high temperatures in Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule, Luwero and other regions, affecting flowering, cherry development, bean filling and processing out-turn.

“It is estimated that adverse weather has contributed to an out-turn that is approximately 10% below normal average in affected areas,” he said.

Uganda exported 846,376 bags of 60kg in July 2026, compared with 997,105 bags in July 2025, a 15% volume decline. Earnings fell from US$250.7m to US$204.1m, a reduction of 18.6%.

“Consequently, traders are becoming more cautious and selective. Farmers bringing well-dried, properly harvested and good-quality coffee may be offered a substantially better price,” he said.

Tumwebaze told farmers a price decline is not the same as making a loss.

“Even with this situation, most important to note, is that our farmers are not close to making losses! A decline in price is not the same thing as making a loss. A farmer who was receiving UGX 13,750 per kilogramme last year and is now receiving UGX 12,500 has experienced a reduction in income but this does not automatically mean the farmer is producing below cost,” he emphasized.

“Uganda’s coffee farming business models show that farmers who improve productivity and undertake basic value addition can break even when the price of FAQ is at UGX 7,000.”

He added: “Farmers and coffee players should not lose courage. The resilience of Uganda’s coffee industry still makes coffee production and associated value chain activities more lucrative and profitable.”

Looking ahead, Tumwebaze said Brazil’s harvest and Vietnam’s Robusta exports will remain major influences, while weather risks in Brazil, Vietnam and West Africa will continue to shape prices.

“It is, therefore, reasonable to expect a slight price recovery and stability over the coming six months,” he said.

He urged Ugandan farmers: “Do not panic. Do not harvest immature coffee. Do not compromise quality. Farmers can increase their returns considerably by moving from raw Kiboko into better processed and graded coffee.”

“To traders, continue buying and supporting farmers and maintain transparent and quality-based pricing. Uganda’s international reputation is a national asset. Protect the quality of Ugandan coffee and cocoa,” he said.

Tumwebaze said government is supporting farmers with fertilizers under the Presidential Directive, strengthening irrigation with the Ministry of Water and Environment, and scaling up support under the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project with improved planting materials and water-management practices.

“Government recognizes that price stability alone is not enough. We must also address underlying production challenges facing farmers, particularly effects of drought, prolonged dry spells and access to inputs,” he said, adding that MAAIF will announce more strategic interventions in the short and medium term.